Middle East conflict - impact on UK energy prices

Information correct as of date of publication (13th April 2026)

Due to the situation in the Middle East, there is a lot of uncertainty and volatility in the UK energy market. There has been a marked increase in the cost of wholesale gas (and oil), which has a knock-on effect on the price of electricity. This means UK Energy Suppliers are withdrawing their most competitive tariffs and closing some of what they offer, in expectation of higher costs. Ofgem, the Energy Regulator, have also made a statement about this.

While we saw the Energy Price Cap go down on 1st April 2026 (by 6.7%), there are no longer many fixed energy deals that save you a % lower than the current April Price Cap – all the best available fixed tariffs are 1.6 - 0.1% below the April Price Cap, with 1 available 0.2% above. This situation is very changeable – early on Friday morning (9th April) the best fixed tariffs available were 2-4% above the Price Cap, and then 2 hours later, some fixes below the Price Cap popped up – showing how quickly fixed energy deals can be introduced, but also withdrawn.  

Whether to fix energy costs now depends on your attitude to risk – if we see anything over a 10% increase in the July Energy Cap (we will know the confirmed July rise by about mid-May), then fixing now at a little below or above the April Price Cap may have been worth it. Most of these fixed energy deals will have exit fees of at least £50 per fuel, meaning once you are locked into a fix, it is unlikely to be worth paying the exit fee to leave it later during the term (unless we see a dramatic decrease in prices). If you would prefer to have fixed Unit Rates and Daily Standing charges for your energy and know what you will need to pay (depending on your usage) for the next year or so (most fixes available today 9am on 13th April, are for 12, 13 or 15 months), then fixing now may be the better option for you.

There is also a possibility that if the situation improves or settles, that we might not see such an increase in July. The average expected increase in the Price Cap in July 2026 is currently sitting at 17.3% higher than the current Price Cap or Standard Variable Tariff.  If you are willing to take a chance on the situation improving and energy prices settling down, then you could choose to stay on the Energy Price Cap (ergo the Standard Variable Tariff) with your supplier for now. There is also a chance that there may be higher than forecasted increases if the situation is not resolved or worsens. 

The UK Government is also working on contingency plans on how to help UK consumers of energy should the situation escalate. It is unlikely at this stage that we will see a repeat of anything such as the Energy Price Guarantee that was introduced in September 2022 during the spike in energy prices through the start of the Ukraine conflict. You can read more about it in this BBC article.

The currently available best fixed deals for energy can come and go with little to no notice. For the most up to date news on Energy Price Cap predictions and guidance on fixed deals currently available, you can refer to:

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